What to Watch in Tesla’s Earnings Call: Robotaxis, Affordable Models, and Hardware Anxiety

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) upcoming earnings call promises to be more than just a look at quarterly numbers. According to Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management, the call will reveal how well Tesla is pivoting its narrative from electric vehicles to autonomy, affordability, and scalable AI infrastructure.

As Tesla continues to dominate headlines with innovation, here are five key areas investors should focus on:

1. Robotaxi Expansion: Not Just Hype, But Rate of Deployment Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in mid-June, starting with 15 vehicles and quickly doubling the fleet to around 35. The operational zone has also expanded to 42 square miles.

Elon Musk has projected over 1,000 robotaxis across multiple cities “within months,” with San Francisco likely next by fall. But rather than fleet size alone, Munster recommends focusing on expansion velocity. A fleet of a few hundred by September would be a bullish signal; anything under 100 would likely underwhelm.

This shift to robotaxis places Tesla at the forefront of physical AI, an area where it arguably leads the auto-tech pack.

1. Affordable Tesla Model: Timeline and Market Disruption Investors have long awaited Tesla’s sub-$30,000 vehicle, initially expected by mid-2025. Munster now anticipates a more realistic timeline of early 2026, with full-scale production ramping later that year.

This model could potentially disrupt mass-market segments currently led by Volkswagen, Toyota (NYSE:TM), and BYD (SZ:002594), especially if Tesla can maintain its technological edge and cost advantages.

1. Delivery Trends: Tax Credit Expiry Could Skew Data June deliveries were down 14% year-over-year, but Q3 could look stronger than expected. The $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of September for some Tesla models, representing about 20% of global deliveries. This is expected to shift demand from Q4 into Q3.

Munster sees Q3 deliveries coming in flat compared to last year, better than Wall Street’s projected 6% decline.

1. Gross Margin Watch: Rebound or Plateau? Tesla’s automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, were 12.5% in March. Analysts expect these to rise modestly to 13.6% in June. Lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies have helped, but pricing pressures—especially in China—remain a headwind.

Margins will be a litmus test for how well Tesla is managing scale while defending profitability.

1. Hardware Anxiety: The HW3 and HW4 Gap About 1.4 million Teslas in the U.S. are running on HW3 hardware, which doesn’t support Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) aspirations. HW4 vehicles—about 1.3 million—can operate the current robotaxi software, but may not be futureproof.

The next-gen HW5 chip is due in 2026 and promises to be 10x more powerful. This hardware bottleneck is emerging as a risk that could limit how many current owners participate in Tesla’s autonomous future.

Key Metrics for Tesla Investors Use these FinancialModelingPrep APIs to track Tesla's evolving fundamentals and forecast implications of autonomy:

Ratios (TTM): Monitor Tesla's trailing margins, return on capital, and leverage to assess operational efficiency through transitions.

Price Target Summary: Compare analyst expectations with Munster’s forecasts to gauge sentiment shifts pre- and post-call.

Tesla’s call won’t just be about EPS and revenue this time. It will test the company’s narrative pivot from EV manufacturer to AI-driven platform for autonomy and affordability. Investors would be wise to watch closely.