Nvidia Gets Bullish Price Target Boost from Barclays on Supply Chain Strength
Summary
Barclays has raised its price target on Nvidia (NVDA) to $200 from $170, implying a 38% upside. The upgrade is based on positive supply chain checks indicating potential revenue upside, particularly in July, leading to a revised full-year Compute revenue forecast of $37 billion. Despite current Blackwell wafer production slightly missing prior estimates, utilization is healthy, and the outlook for H2 2025 is increasingly positive, supported by Blackwell Ultra timing and growing system sales contribution. Barclays values NVDA at 29x its revised 2026 EPS estimate.
Barclays Lifts Nvidia Price Target to $200 on Supply Chain Strength
Related Stock: NVDA Publication Date: 2025-06-18 07:20:10
New York, NY - Barclays has significantly increased its price target for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares to $200, up from the previous target of $170. This revised target reflects growing confidence from the investment bank regarding Nvidia's ability to leverage robust supply chain dynamics and sustained AI-driven demand throughout the latter half of 2025.
The new $200 price target suggests a substantial 38% upside potential compared to Nvidia's closing price of $144.69 on June 16.
Supply Chain Checks Indicate Upside
Following Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report, Barclays conducted supply chain assessments which indicated a potential $2 billion revenue upside specifically for the month of July, relative to current consensus estimates. This positive signal has led Barclays to upgrade its full-year Compute revenue forecast for Nvidia to $37 billion, an increase from the prior estimate of $35.6 billion.
Despite Blackwell chip production currently tracking at approximately 30,000 wafers per month, slightly below Barclays' earlier projection of 40,000, the firm noted that utilization rates remain healthy. Furthermore, the outlook for the second half of the year is described as increasingly positive.
Key positive indicators highlighted by Barclays include:
- Blackwell Ultra production remains on schedule for mass production in the third quarter.
- System sales are anticipated to contribute around 25% of July's revenue, projected to grow to 50% by October.
- Potential for gross margin improvement driven by increased scale and a favorable shift in product mix.
Valuation Perspective
Barclays' updated $200 price target is derived by applying a 29x multiple to its revised 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $6.86. This is an increase from their previous EPS estimate of $6.43. The upward revision in both the EPS forecast and the resulting price target underscores Barclays' conviction in Nvidia's dominant position within the Compute and AI infrastructure market, even while acknowledging near-term wafer supply considerations.
As the demand for Blackwell systems and broader AI data center infrastructure continues its strong growth trajectory, Barclays believes Nvidia's growth narrative remains robust, offering significant upside potential in the upcoming quarters.