Investors “Turn the Page” on Tariff News, But Piper Sandler Warns Tariff Risks Remain
Summary
Despite recent tariff news and extensions, markets showed little reaction, leading some to believe the worst of trade tensions is over. However, Piper Sandler analysts warn that tariff risks persist, citing the lack of evidence for rollbacks and the potential for further escalation. They advise investors to remain vigilant, as ongoing duties and trade uncertainties continue to pose macro risks.
Investors "Turn the Page" on Tariff News, But Piper Sandler Warns Tariff Risks Remain
Despite a fresh round of tariff letters from President Trump and an extension of the August 1 implementation date, markets barely budged this week. Piper Sandler analysts suggest this subdued reaction reflects a consensus that "the worst of the trade fight is behind us," but they caution that tariffs remain a live risk.
Market Calm vs. Policy Reality
Wall Street closed Tuesday mixed, with option-implied volatilities near their lowest since April. Trump's letters to Japan, South Korea, and others detailing elevated duties—and threats to the EU and China—elicited little market stress. The 10% baseline tariff plus higher levies on steel, aluminum, autos, and now copper remain in place.
"Investors may be done with tariffs, but we doubt Trump's tariff agenda is done with investors," Piper Sandler analysts wrote.
Why the Caution Matters
Piper Sandler argues that despite market indifference, there is scant evidence tariffs will be rolled back. The existing duties are "too substantial to be digested without at least some indigestion," and Trump's negotiating posture suggests further escalation remains possible.
Data Tools for Traders
- Economic events calendar: Stay ahead of tariff-driven volatility by tracking key macroeconomic data releases such as CPI, GDP, and trade balances.
- Most active market movers: Monitor intraday spikes and unusual volume activity in sectors likely to react first to trade headlines.
Bottom Line
While headline risk has temporarily faded, investors should not assume the tariff saga is over. Ongoing duties, the potential for new levies, and uncertainty around trade negotiations mean that tariffs remain a source of macro risk. Stay positioned for sudden shifts—tools like the economic calendar and most active stock tracker can offer real-time insight.