Iran's Aging Air Force: More F-4 Phantoms Than Any Nation—What This Means in a Conflict with Israel

Recent tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated, bringing their respective military capabilities into sharp focus. As both nations rely heavily on their air forces, understanding the composition and readiness of these fleets is crucial. A notable aspect of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Air Force (IRIAF) is its surprisingly large operational fleet of F-4 Phantom II fighter jets, exceeding that of any other nation globally.

The Legacy of the F-4 Phantom II

The F-4 Phantom II, a twin-engine, all-weather, long-range supersonic jet interceptor and fighter-bomber, rose to prominence in the 1960s. Developed by McDonnell Douglas (now part of Boeing (BA)), it was widely used by the United States, particularly during the Vietnam War. Known for its speed, substantial payload capacity, and adaptability, the F-4 became an icon of American air power.

Iran acquired a significant number of F-4s before the 1979 Iranian Revolution as part of the U.S. effort to modernize the Shah's military. Despite decades of international sanctions and the inherent challenges of maintaining aging hardware, Iran reportedly still operates over 60 F-4s. This longevity is a testament to Iran's maintenance capabilities, albeit likely relying on reverse engineering and black market parts.

Iran's Air Force: A Mix of Old and Older

While the F-4 fleet is the largest, it represents just one component of Iran's diverse, albeit aging, air force. The IRIAF operates a mix of aircraft acquired before the revolution and others obtained from various sources since. Another key asset is the F-14 Tomcat, also acquired from the U.S. before 1979. While once a formidable air superiority fighter, Iran's remaining F-14s face similar sustainment challenges as the F-4s.

According to the 2025 World Air Forces report from FlightGlobal, Iran's combat aircraft inventory includes:

• F-4 Phantom II: 65 active (Strike fighter)
• F-14 Tomcat: 41 active (Fleet defense fighter)
• CH-47C Chinook: 40 active (Medium-lift transport helicopter)
• F-5E Tiger II: 35 active (Multirole fighter)
• Bell 214: 24 active (Medium-lift utility helicopter)
• Mi-171 Hip-H: 22 active (Medium-lift transport helicopter)
• Su-24 Fencer: 21 active (Long-range strike/attack aircraft)
• MiG-29 Fulcrum: 18 active (Lightweight multirole fighter)
• F-7 Fishcan: 17 active (Interceptor/Strike fighter)
• AH-1J SeaCobra: 13 active (Attack helicopter)
• Mirage F1EQ: 12 active (Interceptor aircraft)
• Su-22 Fitter: 9 active (Strike fighter)
• Bell 212: 9 active (Medium-lift utility/transport helicopter)
• SH-3 Sea King: 8 active (Anti-submarine warfare helicopter)
• CH-53 Sea Stallion: 6 active (Heavy-lift transport helicopter)
• Bell 206: 5 active (Light utility helicopter)

This list highlights a reliance on aircraft designs from the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. While some of these platforms remain capable, their effectiveness in a modern conflict against a technologically advanced air force like Israel's is questionable. Modern air defense systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and fifth-generation fighter aircraft possess significant advantages over these older platforms.

Implications in a Conflict with Israel

Having a large number of F-4s provides Iran with a substantial airframe inventory. However, the operational readiness, maintenance status, and technological capabilities of these aging jets are critical factors. In a direct confrontation with Israel, which operates a modern air force including F-15s, F-16s, and advanced F-35s, Iran's older fleet would face significant challenges.

• Technological Disparity: Israeli aircraft possess superior radar, electronic warfare suites, and precision-guided munitions compared to Iran's older platforms. This creates a significant disadvantage in air-to-air combat and strike missions.
• Maintenance and Parts: Decades of sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to acquire genuine spare parts, forcing reliance on potentially unreliable sources or domestically produced components. This can impact operational readiness and safety.
• Pilot Training: While Iranian pilots are trained, the level of training and experience on these older platforms compared to pilots operating modern aircraft is a crucial variable.

While Iran's F-4s and other older aircraft may still pose a threat for ground attack missions or against less sophisticated adversaries, their ability to achieve air superiority or conduct deep penetration strikes against Israel's advanced defenses is limited. The sheer number of airframes provides some level of deterrence and capability for regional operations, but it does not equate to parity with a modern air force.

Market Context and Investment Insights

The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and specifically between Iran and Israel, have a direct impact on the defense sector. Companies like Boeing (BA), which manufactured the F-4 Phantom II and the CH-47 Chinook, are significant players in the global aerospace and defense market. While the F-4 is no longer in production, the ongoing need for defense modernization and the potential for increased military spending in response to regional instability can benefit defense contractors.

Investors interested in the defense sector should consider the following:

• Increased Defense Budgets: Heightened geopolitical risk often leads to increased defense spending by nations seeking to modernize their militaries and enhance their security capabilities. This can translate to higher demand for new aircraft, missile systems, and other defense technologies.
• Modernization Programs: Countries with aging air forces, like Iran, may eventually seek to acquire more modern platforms, although this is heavily influenced by sanctions and political factors. However, other nations in the region are actively pursuing modernization, benefiting companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and others.
• Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions in key regions can introduce volatility into the market but also create opportunities in sectors directly or indirectly involved in defense and security.

While Iran's large fleet of aging F-4s is a historical curiosity and a testament to their maintenance efforts, it underscores the significant technological gap between their air force and that of potential adversaries like Israel. For investors, the focus remains on companies at the forefront of modern defense technology and those benefiting from global defense spending trends driven by geopolitical realities.