JPMorgan Reiterates Underweight on Tesla, Cuts Q2 Delivery Forecast Amid Sluggish Demand

Publication Date: July 1, 2025

JPMorgan has reaffirmed its "Underweight" rating and a $115 price target for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), citing persistent signs of weak demand for the electric vehicle manufacturer's products. The firm has significantly revised its second-quarter delivery forecast downward, anticipating a sharper year-over-year decline than previously projected.

Revised Q2 Delivery Projections

JPMorgan now estimates that Tesla will deliver approximately 360,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025. This revised figure represents a substantial 19% year-over-year decrease compared to the 444,000 deliveries recorded in the same period last year. Furthermore, this new forecast falls 8% short of the broader market consensus of 392,000 deliveries and is 6.5% below Tesla's own compiled consensus of 385,000.

This updated projection marks a 9% reduction from JPMorgan's previous estimate of 395,000 deliveries for Q2, which was issued in April.

Basis for Lowered Expectations

The revised outlook is a result of JPMorgan's comprehensive analysis of recent sales trends across key global markets. The firm leveraged reliable data from regions such as Europe, combined with third-party estimates for other significant markets like the United States. Additionally, insurance registration data from China through late June was incorporated into their assessment, providing a more complete picture of demand dynamics.

Persistent Demand Softness Concerns

JPMorgan's continued cautious stance on Tesla's stock is underpinned by its concerns regarding ongoing demand softness for the company's vehicles. The investment bank believes that this persistent weakness could further impact Tesla's sales volumes and, consequently, its financial performance. The reiterated "Underweight" rating and reduced delivery forecast underscore the firm's view that Tesla faces significant headwinds in maintaining its growth trajectory amidst challenging market conditions and increasing competition.

The analysis suggests that despite Tesla's efforts, the underlying demand for its vehicles may not be as robust as previously anticipated by some market participants, leading to a more conservative outlook from JPMorgan. This perspective reinforces the firm's belief that the stock may face downward pressure in the near term.

Implications for Investors

For investors, JPMorgan's updated analysis serves as a critical data point, highlighting potential risks associated with Tesla's sales performance. The significant cut in delivery forecasts, coupled with the reiterated "Underweight" rating, suggests that the firm sees limited upside potential for the stock in the current environment. This report could influence investor sentiment and potentially lead to further scrutiny of Tesla's upcoming financial results and future guidance.