PayPal's Make-Or-Break Moment Ahead

Branded checkout TPV grew 5% YoY in Q2 2025, lagging global e-commerce, signaling persistent share-of-wallet erosion. The unbranded PSP segment, led by Braintree, is shifting to disciplined profitability, with transaction margin dollars rising despite slower TPV. Adjusted free cash flow fell 42% YoY to $656M, raising concerns about the sustainability of capital returns and buybacks.