Tariff Jitters Lift Gold, Nvidia Faces Chip Supply Squeeze, and JPMorgan Sees AI as Semiconductor Bright Spot

As global markets step into the second half of 2025, trade tensions and AI-fueled demand continue to steer sentiment. Gold prices saw modest gains, Nvidia flagged limited H20 chip availability in China, and JPMorgan issued a cautiously optimistic outlook on the semiconductor sector.

Gold Ticks Up as U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Simmer Gold prices nudged higher on Monday, with spot gold rising 0.5% to $3,365.49/oz and September futures climbing 0.4% to $3,372.88/oz. The move comes amid growing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, particularly tariffs due to take effect on August 1. A Wall Street Journal report said the EU is preparing retaliatory measures after being blindsided by demands for a baseline 15% tariff in upcoming U.S. trade talks.

The dollar’s slight pullback added to the bullish momentum, although gold remains locked in a $200 range since April. Meanwhile, silver and platinum outpaced gold—spot silver is up 53.5% YTD and platinum 29.2%, compared to gold’s 28.4% gain.

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Nvidia Faces AI Chip Bottleneck in China Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has told its Chinese clients that its H20 AI chip—the most powerful model still eligible for sale in China—is in limited supply and not slated for further production. The chip was previously approved under Biden-era export rules, but fresh Trump-led restrictions have disrupted sales again.

Although Nvidia said last week it expects a new license to resume H20 exports, U.S. officials have yet to confirm. This chip is central to China’s AI ambitions and is used by tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance.

Investors watching Nvidia’s China exposure should monitor geopolitical developments closely as they may impact both short-term revenues and long-term AI strategy.

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JPMorgan: AI Demand Will Drive Q2 Semi Earnings, But H2 Risks Loom JPMorgan analysts forecast Q2 earnings in the semiconductor space to be “in-line to slightly better” as AI remains a core driver. Nearly 85% of chip and capital equipment firms had positive revisions in Q1 2025, up from under 50% in prior years.

Cloud data center capex is projected to grow 40% YoY, boosting names like Broadcom, Marvell, and Nvidia. But the bank also warned that potential new tariffs and demand pull-forwards may dampen momentum in H2. JPMorgan is especially bullish on stocks linked to chip design and AI infrastructure, including KLA Corp and Synopsys.

Flat WFE spending is expected in 2025, but complexity in chip manufacturing is seen as a long-term growth driver.

Bottom Line: Trade uncertainty remains a central theme across commodities and tech. Gold is benefitting from geopolitical hedging, while Nvidia and the broader chip sector are navigating a high-stakes tug-of-war between AI demand and policy risk. Investors may want to stay selective, favoring AI-aligned plays and monitoring gold as a defensive asset.